Outcomes (HIP-4 Prediction Markets)
Hyperliquid's on-chain binary prediction markets. Trade YES/NO outcomes on real-world events with USDH-collateralized order books, native venue settlement, and a full suite of analytics widgets.
hip4 feature flag and are off by default. Enable via NEXT_PUBLIC_FF_HIP4=true or the in-app flag toggle. The discovery and analytics widgets (Outcomes Monitor, Strategy Builder) are always available.An outcome market is a binary contract on a real-world event. You buy YES if you think the event will happen and NOif you don't. Each side is its own ticker with its own L2 order book.
| At settlement | If YES is true | If NO is true |
|---|---|---|
| YES side | Pays $1 per share | Pays $0 |
| NO side | Pays $0 | Pays $1 per share |
Because each side settles at either $1 or $0, the live price is the implied probability of that outcome. A YES quote of 0.62 means the market thinks the event is ~62% likely. Prices are bounded between 0.001 and 0.999so you can't list a free option.
Every HIP-4 market is defined by four pieces of metadata you'll see in the UI:
| Field | Meaning | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying | What the market is tracking | BTC, ETH, a CPI print, an election |
| Target | The threshold or category that decides YES | BTC ≥ $80,000 at close |
| Expiry | When the market resolves | Daily close (UTC), specific block, event date |
| Status | Lifecycle position | open / pending / resolved |
HIP-4 outcomes are collateralized in USDH, a spot token on Hyperliquid paired with USDC at the @230 spot pair. Every YES or NO position you hold is backed by a USDH balance on your Hyperliquid spot wallet.
| Action | How |
|---|---|
| Top up USDH | Swap USDC → USDH 1:1 at peg via the USDH Swap widget. The widget submits IOC orders at the pair @230 spot price. |
| Withdraw to USDC | Same widget — swap USDH → USDC. IOC execution at the live mid. |
| Check balance | The HIP-4 Trade panel shows live USDH balance before order placement. |
- Discover— open the Outcomes Monitorwidget and search/sort to find a market that interests you. The "resolves soon" rail surfaces markets nearing expiry.
- Inspect— click a row to load it into HIP-4 Market Detail. You see the parsed parameters, both sides of the L2 order book, and the underlying tracker (live price, distance to target, countdown).
- Estimate odds— check the Probability Gauge for implied YES probability and the Settlement Odds what-if calculator to stress-test target / time / vol assumptions.
- Place an order— open the HIP-4 Trade widget, pick YES or NO, set size and limit price (within [0.001, 0.999]), and submit.
- Monitor — the HIP-4 Positions widget tracks open positions, working orders (with one-click cancel), and recent fills.
- Settle— at expiry, the venue settles automatically. Watch the Settlement Feed for live → expired → settled transitions across all markets.
Discovery
Outcomes Monitor
Searchable, sortable list of every HIP-4 market. Sort by probability move or by expiry. The 'resolves soon' rail highlights markets minutes-from-settlement.
HIP-4 Markets
Curated list of markets with status badges (open / pending / resolved). Click a row to load it into the detail panel.
Market detail
HIP-4 Market Detail
Selected market's parsed parameters and per-side YES/NO L2 order book in one panel.
HIP-4 Underlying Tracker
Live underlying price, distance to target, expiry countdown, and 24h sparkline with target overlay.
Analytics
HIP-4 Probability Gauge
Animated 270° gauge showing implied YES probability from BS-lite math. Pairs with YES/NO probability cards and a sigma-from-target readout.
HIP-4 Settlement Odds
Interactive what-if calculator with live-pre-filled inputs. Slide target, time-to-expiry, or vol to see the implied odds change in real time.
Strategy Builder
Compose HIP-4 binaries into synthetic option payoffs — call ladders, range bumps, barbells. Strike-ladder picker, what-if legs, payoff chart, and same-strike YES+NO arb detector. Analysis only — no order placement.
HIP-4 Settlement Feed
Rolling tape of live, expired, and settled outcomes across all markets. Animated state pills make lifecycle transitions easy to spot.
Trading
HIP-4 Trade
Place YES/NO orders on the selected market. Buy/sell each side, bounded price input, live USDH balance check before submission.
HIP-4 Positions
Tabs for open positions, working orders (with one-click cancel), and recent fills. Per-market filtering.
USDH Swap
Two-way USDC ↔ USDH swap at the Hyperliquid @230 spot pair. IOC execution at peg; live balance display.
Outcomes are exposed as a first-class MarketProduct alongside perpetuals and spot. That means the same agent personality, goal system, and REP scoring apply.
| Surface | How Outcomes integrate |
|---|---|
| Agent goals | Goals can trigger on outcome-market price moves and time-to-expiry — same trigger engine as perpetuals. Implied-probability thresholds are selectable and armable but do not evaluate yet. |
| Reputation (REP) | Outcome trades contribute to the agent's REP class scores (mean-revert, contrarian, breakout). Strong outcome performance helps unlock higher tier monetization. |
| Marketplace | Agents that specialize in outcome markets can be sold as templates, copy-trade subscriptions, or signal feeds — Marketplace 70/30 split applies. |
| MetaChat | Outcome widgets are CaptureProvider-aware: drop a market into chat to ask the assistant about it, or have it propose a payoff structure via the Strategy Builder. |
- Outcome positions can settle at $0 — a winning side is worth $1, a losing side is worth nothing. Position sizing matters even more than on perps.
- Liquidity in HIP-4 markets is much thinner than crypto perps. Use limit orders and respect the L2 book; market sweeps will move price.
- The implied-probability math (Probability Gauge / Settlement Odds) is a heuristic. It assumes a lognormal underlying which breaks down near expiry and in extreme moves.
- USDH is a separate spot token from USDC. Withdrawals from Hyperliquid bridge USDC, not USDH — swap back to USDC via the USDH Swap widget before withdrawing.